'... as has been happening in the last three weeks, then the foreign exchange reserves will not be comfortable to ensure that the rupee does not fall drastically.'
The chief statistician feels there should be a rebound after companies integrate and adopt the GST system
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies jumped to a record high of Rs 2,40,04,664.28 crore on Tuesday, driven by a rally in stocks that also saw the benchmark Sensex touching its lifetime peak of 53,887.98 points. Rallying for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, the 30-share BSE index closed at a fresh closing peak of 53,823.36 points, a jump of 872.73 points or 1.65 per cent. During the day, it zoomed 937.35 points to 53,887.98 points.
Infosys Technologies has announced its first quarter results.
10 non-bank and non-finance stocks from the BSE500 Index universe that offer an optimal blend of low valuation, reasonably robust revenue and earnings growth in recent quarters, a strong balance sheet, and most importantly, positive cash flow from their operations.
With another quarter of steady growth in demand, cement companies are expected to report strong year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in earnings, according to analysts. The September quarter (Q2FY24) also witnessed a resumption of price hikes in certain markets. UltraTech Cement, India's largest cement producer, reported a 15 per cent Y-o-Y increase in cement sales in the country for the quarter under review.
Domestic ratings agency Icra on Monday forecast a 2 per cent GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020-21, and a 7.3 per cent contraction for the full fiscal year. From a GVA or gross value added perspective, the agency pegs Q4 growth at 3 per cent and the full year contraction at 6.3 per cent. According to the agency, the 2 per cent projected GDP growth will help the economy avoid a double-dip recession as indicated by the National Statistical Office (NSO) for Q4. Icra's projection is better than the 8 per cent contraction forecast by the NSO as it sees Q4 growth at only 1.1 per cent.
Paytm's Rs 18,300 crore IPO was oversubscribed 1.89 times on the last day of India's biggest share sale on Wednesday, making it one of the country's most valued companies. The initial public offering of Paytm's parent company One97 Communications Ltd received bids for 9.14 crore equity shares against the offer size of 4.83 crore shares, according to information available from stock exchanges. While the portion set aside for retail investors was oversubscribed early, institutional buyers including FIIs flooded the share sale with offers on Wednesday, seeking 2.79 times the number of shares reserved for them.
HDFC Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying over 4 per cent, followed by SBI. IndusInd Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and HDFC were also among the gainers. NSE Nifty soared 269.25 points to 15,175.30.
There are conflicting views on Delhivery. The logistics player's results for the July-September quarter (Q2FY24) are being interpreted as good by some analysts and disappointing by others. As India's largest listed logistics player, the company stands to benefit from the formalisation across the mostly unorganised logistics space. Delhivery provides solutions to 23,113 customers, including e-commerce marketplaces, direct-to-consumer e-tailers, and enterprises across verticals.
Bank shares were the top losers along with index heavyweight RIL
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected retail inflation to ease to 5.3 per cent in next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year on assumptions of lower imported inflation, even though core inflation remains sticky. The RBI's inflation outlook for current fiscal has improved from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, to 6.5 per cent, on the back of steeper than expected decline in vegetable prices and Indian basket of crude at $95 a barrel. "Looking ahead, while inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-24, it is likely to rule above the 4 per cent target.
The results of Indian IT services players in the just-concluded fourth quarter of 2021-22 are expected to reveal continuing growth momentum as demand surges on the back of digital transformations and the cloud shift, but analysts anticipate margins to be under pressure due to supply challenges. Analysts covering the sector expect revenue commentary should be strong despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflation. Top-line growth will be driven by broad-based demand with a strong uptick for cloud, digital, cybersecurity, data analytics, and artificial intelligence, among other services.
Shares of HCL Tech hit a fresh record high of Rs 1,118.55 on Friday, up 2 per cent on the BSE in intra-day trade, surpassing its previous high of Rs 1,101 touched on Thursday in intra-day deals.
India's equity markets are on a roller-coaster ride, after delivering spectacular returns for two consecutive years - in 2020 and 2021. The benchmark National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) Nifty50 is down 1.5 per cent in the first nine months of the current calendar year 2022 (CY22) as foreign portfolio investors sold Indian stocks due to rising bond yields in the US and across global markets, including India. The sell-off in the Indian equity markets has, however, not been broad-based and largely limited to sectors facing earnings headwinds from rising interest rates, lower commodity and energy prices, and likely economic recession in advanced economies.
Bajaj Finance was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, plunging around 6 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, SBI, M&M, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto and ICICI Bank. NSE Nifty sank 229.55 points to 14,637.80.
"It went up to 20-odd per cent in 2019 and to 25 per cent a year later. "That's when we decided to pull the plug; it was not sustainable for our business," says Chadha. Madison & Pike, instead, turned to Mumbai-based start-up Thrive, which provides third-party delivery services to restaurants at a much lower commission - three to five per cent.
Infosys, however, cut 2017-18 revenue growth guidance to 5.5-6.5 per cent from 6.5-8.5 per cent in constant currency.
A well-established tax system would have a predictable buoyancy - how fast the collections grow as a proportion to the growth of the economy. But that is not the case with GST. It is still undergoing substantial changes as the government responds to structural as well as administrative glitches.
'While most companies were bullish before the second wave of double-digit sales growth in FY22, that may not be the case now.'
Tamil Nadu has cornered around 18.63 per cent of the fresh investments in Q1FY21 and topped the list of state-wise investments. These investments should help create over 67,212 jobs.
India's real GDP growth will decline marginally to 6.3 per cent in 2024 from the 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023, an American brokerage firm said on Monday. The next calendar year will be of two halves, wherein the government spending before the upcoming General Elections will be the key driver for growth, while after the elections, it will be the re-acceleration in investment growth, especially from the private sector, Goldman Sachs said in a report. From a fiscal year perspective, the brokerage said it expects growth to accelerate to 6.5 per cent for FY25 from the 6.2 per cent it has projected for the ongoing FY24, it added.
'Money that came into mutual funds near the previous peaks -- the second half of 2017 and 2018 -- has in most cases experienced unflattering returns.' 'A large proportion of redemptions could be such inflows exiting when the market recovered sharply from July 2020 onwards.'
Vodafone Idea (Vi) lost 12.4 million subscribers in the first quarter of FY22, the most since the fourth quarter of FY20, as the second wave of Covid hurt its operational and financial performance. Vi had managed to trim subscriber losses in the third and fourth quarters of FY21. However, it lost 12.4 million subscribers and its customer base shrunk to 255.4 million in the first quarter of FY22. Sequential fall in 4G users was modest, indicating that most of the loss was in the low-margin 2G segment.
Large Indian IT services companies are expected to report "muted" sequential show in a traditionally strong second quarter, as macroeconomic challenges continue to weigh on global discretionary spending, say market watchers. The big earnings week for tech heavyweights is up ahead, with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) scheduled to announce its results on October 11, and both Infosys and HCL Technologies on October 12. Wipro is slated to declare its Q2FY24 results next week, on October 18.
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
India's exports jumped 45.76 per cent to $33.28 billion in August on account of healthy growth in segments like engineering, petroleum products, gems and jewellery and chemicals, even as the trade deficit widened to a four-month high of $13.81 billion.
Developers are cautious about the timing of launches in the near term, given the relative uncertainty in demand pick-up and logistical challenges during the lockdown. However, affordable housing projects slated for the first quarter (Q1) of 2020-21 (FY21) may get launched this quarter itself.
HDFC Bank, the country's largest private-sector lender, lost to competition wholesale loans of around Rs 50,000 crore after it increased interest rates in May, said Chief Financial Officer Srinivasan Vaidyanathan in an analyst call. "There were some customers who were offered lower rates by other market participants. "But we decided not to cut back on our rates," he said while addressing analysts after the announcement of the bank's Q1 earnings.
Jet Airways Ltd said on Friday it made a profit in the June quarter compared to a loss in the year-ago period, helped by a drop in fuel expenses.
The company's decision may impact new projects, which are likely to get delayed, said sources in the know. Among the IT players that work with Macy's are Accenture, Cognizant, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), and Infosys. Macy's is among the top 5-10 clients of these companies.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Yes Bank, Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, HUL, Vedanta, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, ITC, HDFC and Bajaj Auto, that rose up to 3.75 per cent.
However, in the first quarter when the country was under a lockdown, net financial savings rose to 21 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the data released in the RBI's monthly bulletin.
'We remain positive on technology, private sector financials, gas, infrastructure, and export-oriented plays.'
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
Cement shares have been outperformers on the stock market
Lockdowns imposed by the states in April and May to contain the second wave of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic has likely led to the economy contracting 12 per cent in the June quarter as against 23.9 per cent contraction in the same quarter in 2020, says a brokerage report. The economy had its worst contraction on record in FY21 at 7.3 per cent as the 2.5 months of unplanned lockdown announced by the centre with just a four-hour notice had crippled the economy in the first quarter with a massive 23.9 per cent contraction, which improved to -17.5 per cent in the second quarter.
Distribution yields could rise, but risk of Covid, higher interest rates remain.
What worked for Airtel was that its data traffic growth was 13 per cent sequentially and its average data usage was even higher than Jio's at 11.9 gigabyte per month per user.
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